Anyone travelling through the Eastern, Western or Northern Cape will have noticed convoys of trucks carrying enormous wind turbine blades which are long, sleek structures cutting through the Karoo dust. For some, they are an inconvenience. For others, they mark a decisive shift in South Africa’s energy landscape as wind power becomes central to the country’s future electricity system.
Wind is expanding rapidly and with far less fanfare than solar. The 2025 Integrated Resource Plan anticipates installed wind capacity rising from about 4 gigawatts today to 34 gigawatts by 2039 , almost a ninefold increase while solar is expected to grow fourfold over the same period. The momentum reflects not just scale but performance. Wind can produce electricity during morning and evening peaks, unlike solar, and its capacity factor of 35–45% outpaces solar’s 20–30%. In the words of developers, “We manage this by investing in both technologies. The portfolio effect allows us to hedge performance risk across seasons, technologies and geographies. As a long-term investor, we are not interested in chasing trends but rather technologies that will last for the long term.”
Strong wind resources across the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape make the technology economically attractive, delivering low marginal costs and increasingly efficient turbine designs. While construction is more complex than solar, wind remains one of the cheapest sources of new, large-scale power in South Africa. Much of the current acceleration is being driven by the commercial and industrial market, which is outpacing state procurement. Over the past two years, AIIM has finalised more than 660 megawatts of wind projects in the C&I sector, including Castle Wind Farm for Sibanye Stillwater and the 420-megawatt Northern Cluster for off-takers such as Rio Tinto and Net Zero Africa. While the REIPPPP programme delivered roughly 9 gigawatts in 15 years, private buyers have secured more than 5.8 gigawatts in just 2.5 years. “This is a signal that institutional capital is ready to move and that market-led solutions are working.”
Yet the sector has faced real constraints. Bid Windows 5, 6 and 7 stalled due to grid limitations and transmission congestion, a challenge mirrored globally from India to Brazil. “These are not abstract problems. They are real, system-level barriers to getting projects over the line.” This is why the Independent Transmission Programme has emerged as the most significant energy reform now under way. Its model, private developers build, operate and transfer new transmission lines is designed to accelerate expansion pragmatically. Phase 1 includes more than 1 000 kilometres of new lines across seven corridors and the government’s commitment to 14 000 kilometres over the next decade is seen as essential to unlocking future wind development. “Its structure, where private parties build, operate and then transfer lines to the state, is pragmatic and replicable.”
As reform gathers pace, South Africa’s renewable energy market is also showing signs of maturity. In August, the IDEAS Fund exited three long-held REIPPPP projects at Jeffreys Bay Wind Farm and two Northern Cape solar plants in a deal exceeding R750 million with Gaia Renewables, Enzani and Usizo. “The transaction signals that these assets are not only operational but also tradeable and in demand.” Exits of this kind allow early investors to recycle capital into new projects, a hallmark of a deepening market.
For wind to reach its full potential, however, further reforms are needed, particularly around flexible contracting, wheeling and multi-buyer models. Future projects will be distributed more widely, built by multiple developers and dependent on a responsive, expanded grid. As one industry view puts it, “In short, we are not short of capital. We are short of coordination. The private sector is ready. The policy signals are improving. What we now need is follow-through.”
Wind is no longer speculative in South Africa. It is proven, investable and increasingly liquid. “We are not simply imagining a wind-powered future. We are building it, project by project, corridor by corridor.” Those turbine blades moving along the country’s highways are more than striking images as they are visible proof of an energy system being rewritten in real time.